Top Frontier Oil Countries: Potential, exploration opportunities and risks

Economic growth in non-OECD countries, particularly inconsideration through examination of the data available
developing countries such as China and India, and aand an exploration history of the selected frontier
predicted increase in vehicle numbers to 2bn by 2030,areas
are the chief factors in forecast growth in global• Be better-informed of both the potential and the
energy demand, forecast to grow by 40% by 2030challenges presented by exploration in frontier areas,
compared with 2008 levels. Despite increasingincluding the associated political and technological risks
concerns about emissions from the burning of fossil• Assess the attraction and the risks for your
fuels and the effects on the global climate andcompany of investing in these frontier areas
increased investment in renewable energy sources,• Benefit from the report's information to help make
fossil fuels are forecast to account for more thanyour company's next international upstream investment
three quarters of this energy demand growth. Of thedecision
main sources of primary energy; oil, coal, natural gas,Explore issues including...
nuclear, hydropower and biomass, coal will see theSustained fossil fuels reliance: Despite climate change
largest absolute rise, of about 53%. Demand for oil isconcerns and increasing investment in renewable
forecast to rise by 24% to105m barrels per day inenergy sources such as wind, solar and biofuels, fossil
2030, while natural gas demand is forecast to rise byfuels will account for over two-thirds of overall energy
an even greater volume, predicted to reach 4.4trndemand up to 2030
cubic meters a year by 2030. This sustained demandMaturing traditional producing areas: Many of the
for oil and gas is against a backdrop of maturing oilworld's traditional producing regions are maturing or
and gas fields in many of the world's ‘traditional'depleted, meaning oil and gas companies now need to
producing areas such as the North Sea and the Gulfventure into new and unknown areas, ‘frontier'
of Mexico, and concerns about peak oil. In addition, aregions, in order to look for new oil and gas resources
large proportion of the world's proven oil and gasto replace produced reserves and meet continued
reserves are held by a small number of countries, anddemand
evidence of resource nationalism and tighter criteria forFrontier equals high-potential, high-risk: Frontier areas
foreign investment have led to increased concernsare often data-poor, being barely or completely
about energy security. Many of the world's keyunexplored. Many are believed to hold substantial
producing fields are now maturing or are seriouslyundiscovered oil/gas resources, but pose political,
depleted, and the continued demand for new oil andsocio-economic, geographical and technological
gas supplies means governments and companies arechallenges that may present serious barriers to
looking to new, and often completely unknown, regionscommercial investment
to replace reserves. Some of these areas areTechnology opens up frontiers: Technological
believed to contain substantial undiscovered anddevelopments in the oil and gas sector, including
undeveloped resources but many of them posesignificant advances in seismic to aid reservoir analysis;
serious political and technological challenges todeep and ultra-deepwater drilling capabilities; growing
exploration and development.liquefied natural gas (LNG) capacity and
Key findings‘mega-pipelines'
Over three quarters of overall energy demand growthDiscover
up to 2030 is forecast to come from fossil fuels,• By how much is demand for oil and gas forecast
despite increased investment in renewable energyto grow in the next twenty years? How much of this
sources. Over 50m bpd of the 78m bpd of oil forecastforecast demand will need to come from resources
to be produced in 2030 will have to come fromyet to be discovered?
resources yet to be discovered or developed• To what degree can successful frontier
In Africa, the Gulf of Guinea alone is forecast to meetexploration change the concept of ‘peak oil'?
a quarter of total US energy imports by 2020. Sierra• Why do oil and gas companies need to explore in
Leone, Sao Tomé and Principe, and Liberia arenew and unknown frontier areas?
emerging as high potential areas for investment in the• Which are the most promising ‘new' countries
west of the continent as companies look beyondin West Africa for exploration? ‘What is their
major producers Nigeria and Angola. The jointundiscovered resource potential and how risky is
development zone between Sao Tomé and Nigeriainvestment?
could contain up to 11bn barrels• How likely is a resolution to the sovereignty
In eastern Africa, following successful exploration in thedispute over Western Sahara, believed to hold
Albertine basin, Uganda holds the potential to becomesubstantial oil resources, and should companies sign for
a net oil exporterlicences with Morocco or the territory's exiled
The Arctic could contain undiscovered resources ofgovernment?
90bn bls of and 1,670trn cu ft of natural gas,• What discoveries have been made in the
representing 13% and 30% respectively of the world'sultradeep waters of the Gulf of Mexico and what
yet-to-be-found oil and gaspotential do its deep and ultra-deep-waters hold?
Technological developments such as wide-azimuth• Is going deeper in the Gulf of Mexico a better bet
seismic acquisition and floating LNG will play key rolesthan new areas elsewhere in the US?
in successful exploration and development of frontier• What is the resource potential of the Falklands?
oil and gas reservesWill drilling there lead to a repeat of the 1982 Falklands
Use this report toconflict?
• Understand the drivers of the need to explore for• Which basins contain most of the Arctic's
oil and gas in new and largelyunknown areasundiscovered resources?
• Analyse the opportunities available for investment